Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Business
Home / Business / Policies

China to drive global GDP growth this year and next

By JIANG XUEQING | CHINA DAILY | Updated: 2020-05-20 07:46
Share
Share - WeChat
Workers assemble an industrial turbine at a factory in the Haizhou Economic Development Zone in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, in May. GENG YUHE/FOR CHINA DAILY

Rebound in factory activities to boost economic momentum in key sectors

China is one of a few large economies expected to expand and substantially contribute to global GDP growth in 2020 and 2021, said the authors of a latest report jointly issued by Oliver Wyman and Silk Road Associates.

"Even with manufacturing challenges and the potentially longer and more pervasive challenges that may exist in some of the service sector, we still see growth across China and that being a key source of global growth," said Peter Reynolds, partner and head of Oliver Wyman China.

"We've seen a relatively quick rebound, a V-shaped bounce, in manufacturing. Well over 90 percent of the factories are now back online, and many of them continue to be working to fulfill the backlog of orders that existed as the shutdowns over the Chinese Lunar New Year and their off period came through," Reynolds said.

Imports of various supplies, essentially the raw materials used in manufacturing, remained very robust throughout the period, allowing the manufacturing rebound to happen.

China's value-added industrial output declined 8.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter as industrial production was seriously affected by the novel coronavirus outbreak, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

"If you add the Chinese Lunar New Year break, plus the additional couple of weeks that things were stopped, you actually have 17 percent less operational time. So we actually see that 8.4 percent reduction as being quite a positive result in the light of the amount of time the factories needed to shut from a manufacturing side of things," Reynolds added.

"The different economic sectors and regions within China will experience varying paces of recovery, and competing influences will shape the path of growth over the next 12 months depending on the sector concentration in each region," he said.

The recovery of the overall Chinese economy tends to be concentrated in certain areas, according to data comparing changes in pollution levels over a 12-month period for 650 urban areas, said Ben Simpfendorfer, founder and CEO of Silk Road Associates, an advisory services provider.

Some pollution was identified in the Yangtze River Delta, suggesting that the recovery in coal-fired power plants and State-owned industries, especially heavy industries, was more intense there, he said.

From early to mid-February, analysts saw the return of migrant workers, particularly in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, Guangdong province.

"That was quite striking to us-the fact that those migrant workers were quick to come back to the southern manufacturing hub. Their return to the more eastern coastal manufacturing hubs, particularly Wuxi, Suzhou and Ningbo, was slightly delayed, underscoring regional and municipal level differences, partly driven by demand but also the municipal level restrictions on mobility and social distancing," Simpfendorfer said.

The report said there is a risk of a broad global recession leading to demand-driven contraction, which could lead to a more prolonged L-shaped recovery path for China. However, China's reliance on exports is much reduced relative to the time of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. The share of exports to GDP has fallen significantly since that crisis.

Although exports will struggle with global demand falling, the offsetting impact of imports-especially in a very low oil price environment-will have a relatively substantial mitigating effect against the decline of exports, Reynolds said.

The services sector will experience a more U-shaped recovery, with retail sales down 19 percent year-on-year in the first quarter. Within that, analysts saw a huge difference among various types of retail and services delivered through different channels. They are seeing a permanent shift to a "new normal" where digital segments become a significantly larger portion of services delivery.

Top
BACK TO THE TOP
English
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
CLOSE
 
主站蜘蛛池模板: 无码一区二区波多野结衣播放搜索 | 杨晨晨被老师掀裙子露内内| 十大最污软件下载| 鸡鸡插屁股视频| 天堂网在线最新版www| 久久4k岛国高清一区二区| 欧美一级免费观看| 伊人色综合九久久天天蜜桃| 超时空要爱1080p| 国产精品亚洲欧美一级久久精品| maya玛雅□一亚洲电影| 日本一区二区三区在线观看| 亚洲区精品久久一区二区三区| 男女下面一进一出免费无遮挡 | 欧美巨大黑人精品videos| 免费无码AV一区二区三区| 调教女m视频免费区 | 久久精品女人毛片国产| 欧美高清免费一级在线| 午夜性色吃奶添下面69影院| 韩国男男腐啪GV肉视频| 国产精品亚洲一区二区三区| chinese国产一区二区| 成年人影院在线观看| 久久精品国产日本波多野结衣 | 国产欧美va欧美va香蕉在线观看| 99九九精品免费视频观看| 性欧美成人免费观看视| 久久久这里有精品999| 欧美videosdesexo肥婆| 亚洲熟妇av一区二区三区宅男| 精品久久久久国产免费| 国产一区二区三区在线电影| xxxxx免费视频| 国内精品哆啪啪| n男同时一女的h文4p| 成人试看120秒体验区| 久久免费视频99| 最近中文字幕2019视频1| 亚洲国产电影在线观看| 海角社区视频在线|