Misreading Chinese rebalancing

Updated: 2013-07-31 09:49

By Stephen S. Roach (China Daily)

  Print Mail Large  Medium  Small    

Misreading Chinese rebalancing

The punditocracy has once again succumbed to the "China Crash" syndrome - a malady that seems to afflict economic and political commentators every few years. Never mind the recurring false alarms over the past couple of decades. This time is different, argues the chorus of China skeptics.

Yes, China's economy has slowed. While the crisis-battered West could only dream of matching the 7.5 percent annual GDP growth rate that China's National Bureau of Statistics reported for the second quarter of 2013, it certainly does represent an appreciable slowdown from the 10 percent growth trend recorded from 1980 to 2010.

But it is not just the slowdown that has the skeptics worked up. There are also concerns over excessive debt and related fears of a fragile banking system; worries about the ever-present property bubble collapsing; and, most important, the presumed lack of meaningful progress on economic rebalancing - the long-awaited shift from a lopsided export- and investment-led growth model to one driven by internal private consumption.

With respect to the last point, recent shifts in the composition of Chinese GDP appear disconcerting at first glance. Consumption (private as well as public) contributed only 3.4 percentage points to economic growth in the first half of this year, and an estimated 2.5 percentage points in the April-June period - a deceleration on a sequential quarterly basis that underscores a cyclical, or temporary, weakening in Chinese consumer demand.

At the same time, the contribution from investment surged from 2.3 percentage points of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2013 to 5.9 percentage points in the second quarter. In other words, rather than shifting from investment-led to consumer-led growth, China appears to be continuing along its investment-led growth track.

For an unbalanced economy that has under-consumed and over-invested for the better part of three decades, this is unnerving. After all, China's leadership has been talking about rebalancing for years - especially since the enactment of the pro-consumption 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15)in March 2011. It was one thing when rebalancing failed to occur as the economy was growing rapidly; for the skeptics, it is another matter altogether when rebalancing is stymied in a "slow-growth" climate.

This is superficial thinking, at best. The rebalancing of any economy - a major structural transformation in the sources of output growth - can hardly be expected to occur overnight. It takes strategy, time, and determination to pull it off. China has an ample supply of all three.

Previous Page 1 2 Next Page

8.03K

Schedule

President Xi visits Central Asia, attends G20, SCO summits

Sept 3 to 13: Pay state visits to Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Sept 5 to 6: Attend the eighth Leaders' Summit of the Group of Twenty (G20) in St. Petersburg.

Sept 13: Attend the 13th Meeting of the Council of Heads of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

Forum

Chinese economy will not collapse

The Chinese government has steered their megacarrier through choppy seas quite successfully.

China's role in G20

I saw a China that is much more confident to put itself forward at G20 summit.

Photos


Beijing backs truce bid in Syria


Ties with Kyrgyzstan upgraded


Student's rare blood bonds Kazakhstan and China


Xi 'travels in time' along the ancient trade route


Xi in Kyrgyzstan for state visit, SCO summit


Silk Road to take on a new look

主站蜘蛛池模板: 日本一卡精品视频免费| 特级毛片a级毛片免费播放| 国产精品拍拍拍| 丝袜足液精子免费视频| 最近最新中文字幕8| 免费a级毛片18以上观看精品| 麻豆产精国品一二三产区区| 国语对白一区二区三区| 免费av一区二区三区无码| 国产精品入口在线看麻豆| 天天天天天天干| 亚洲变态另类一区二区三区| 网址你懂的在线观看| 国产日韩综合一区二区性色av| www.日本在线视频| 日日噜噜夜夜爽爽| 亚洲va中文字幕| 波多野结衣作品在线观看| 四虎成人国产精品视频| 久艾草国产成人综合在线视频| 在线观看亚洲精品国产| 中文字幕在第10页线观看| 欧美一卡2卡3卡四卡海外精品 | 中国日本欧美韩国18| 日韩欧美黄色片| 亚洲国产精品成人久久久| 狠狠躁日日躁夜夜躁2020| 另类ts人妖一区二区三区| 韩日视频在线观看| 国产男女插插一级| 78成人精品电影在线播放日韩精品电影一区亚洲| 少妇厨房愉情理9仑片视频| 久久久久久久综合狠狠综合| 曰批免费视频播放30分钟直播| 亚洲日产韩国一二三四区| 狠狠爱无码一区二区三区| 又黄又爽一线毛片免费观看| 趴在墙上揉捏翘臀求饶h| 国产欧美在线播放| 6080新视觉| 在线中文字幕一区|