Africa veers toward east for economic partnerships

African countries are likely to reinforce their trade partnerships with China and other emerging markets, as US President Donald Trump's renewed trade protectionism accelerates a strategic rethink across the continent, according to analysts.

Dennis Munene Mwaniki, a policy expert and the executive director of the China-Africa Center at the Africa Policy Institute in Nairobi, said the US tariffs are already influencing strategic conversations in Africa.

"African countries will increasingly turn to China and other emerging markets because they offer more predictable, open trade partnerships at a time when the US is closing its doors," he said.

"African producers facing tougher access to US markets will increasingly look to China's 1.4 billion consumers," Dennis added. "It's a win-win model, unlike what Trump is pushing — a zero-sum approach."

Unlike the US imposition of levies, China has offered zero tariffs and favorable terms to least-developed countries.

Korir Sing'Oei, Kenya's principal secretary for Foreign Affairs, said the imposition of a 10 percent tariff on Kenyan exports to the US will force Kenya to seriously consider diversification in its trade.

"Our long-term strategy must involve diversified trade partnerships," he said. Sing'Oei said the new tariffs would not take effect immediately, as the US' African Growth and Opportunity Act, or AGOA, continues to grant tariff-free access to the US market until September this year.

Industry leaders also echoed concerns about the US tariffs with Anthony Mwangi, CEO of the Kenya Association of Manufacturers, saying that high local production costs have already limited the competitiveness of Kenyan products.

"Domestic taxes and high production costs make Kenyan products less competitive, even before factoring in new US duties," Mwangi said.

Clear direction sought

The Kenya Private Sector Alliance, on the other hand, is calling for a clear trade policy direction as AGOA's expiry looms. Many African countries fear the act may not be renewed upon expiry, which will deal a serious blow to many African economies.

"The US should seriously consider renewing AGOA to sustain the progress made in trade and investment," said Bimal Kantaria, the alliance's director and chair of the Agriculture Sector Network.

The tariffs are also pushing African countries to prioritize regional integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area, Kantaria added.

Some experts say the tariffs are a wake-up call to Africa as they must stand to build resilience through regional integration.

Lesotho, a small country in southern Africa that was imposed a 50 percent tariff by the US before the 90-day pause, warned of immediate factory closures and massive unemployment if the tariffs came into effect.

"It forces us to seek genuine partners and trade more among ourselves. We can no longer depend on unpredictable markets," Dennis said.

Sharon Nakola in Nairobi, Kenya, contributed to this story.